OTTAWA — Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, is facing significant scrutiny as he navigates a challenging political landscape. In 2009, he advised young conservatives to focus on two key themes in their campaigns: the people they aim to represent and the future. "Everything is about the future," he told attendees at the Manning Centre for Building Democracy. However, more than 15 years later, Poilievre finds himself embroiled in controversy following recent comments about the RCMP's handling of past scandals involving former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

His remarks, made during an interview with the YouTube channel Northern Perspective, where he labeled the RCMP leadership as "despicable," have sparked backlash and raised questions about his leadership. Two former staffers from Stephen Harper's administration published op-eds questioning Poilievre's approach, igniting concerns among current Conservative MPs. This week has seen a flurry of rumors regarding potential defections from the Conservative Party to the Liberals, although a few MPs have publicly defended Poilievre.

Despite the support, some party members are privately expressing doubts about Poilievre's viability in the next election. Concerns center around his combative style and his failure to move beyond tactics from the Trudeau era. Additionally, the economic climate, influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, appears to favor Prime Minister Mark Carney, as polling indicates a shift in Canadian sentiment toward the Liberals.

As the Trump trade war unfolds, with job losses becoming a pressing issue, some Conservatives believe the upcoming domestic battles will play to Poilievre's strengths. There is potential for the party to regain support from voters aged 55 and older by challenging Carney's image as Canada's economic steward. With Carney set to present his first budget soon, this moment could be pivotal for his administration, especially after Trump halted trade negotiations with Canada, underscoring Carney's challenges in securing a deal.

To capitalize on any openings, one senior Conservative advised Poilievre to "stop sounding like Donald Trump." The recent controversy surrounding his comments about the RCMP has intensified existing concerns about his leadership style, particularly his tendency to launch aggressive attacks. This has frustrated some party members, especially since targeting law enforcement is atypical for a party that traditionally supports police.

In response to internal feedback, the Conservative Party is making changes. MPs are now allowed greater freedom to engage with the media, and a committee is reviewing the candidate nomination process to address past concerns about last-minute appointments and lack of contests. Some party members have noted Poilievre's increased media presence and improved interactions with the press, although skepticism remains about whether these efforts are sufficient.

A second caucus member expressed that doubts about winning under Poilievre stem from his tone rather than his policies or preparation. While there is still a path to victory, uncertainty looms. Despite these challenges, Poilievre maintains strong support among the party base, particularly among younger and working-class voters, many of whom were drawn to him during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the last election, he garnered over 8 million votes, translating to 41.3 percent of the total.

To secure a broader victory, Poilievre must continue to solidify his standing within the party while also appealing to swing voters. Currently, there is no organized opposition to his leadership within the party. Ben Woodfinden, a former communications director for Poilievre, emphasized that a Conservative leader does not need to be universally liked but must be perceived as serious and competent, akin to how Canadians viewed Harper.

With Carney actively engaging in international affairs, including a recent trip to Asia, Poilievre has an opportunity to position himself as focused on domestic issues such as crime, immigration, and the cost of living. Ginny Roth, another former communications director for Poilievre, noted that the key challenge for the Conservatives is to connect with voters in a way that distinguishes them from the Liberals. She highlighted Poilievre's previous success in leading public opinion on significant issues and urged him to return to that approach.

Crime remains a pressing concern for many Canadians, particularly in urban areas, and the Conservatives see this as an opportunity to resonate with voters. The party's performance in the recent election, where they gained ground in traditionally Liberal strongholds, is viewed as encouraging. However, Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst, cautioned that current data does not indicate a significant shift in support among older voters for the Liberals, suggesting that patience among Canadians may still favor Carney.

As Poilievre continues to face challenges, he enjoys considerable backing from party members, providing him with some leeway in his leadership. Ultimately, the Conservative Party will evaluate his ability to challenge Carney for the prime ministership in the future.