At the time of publish, a federal budget impasse and government shutdown are underway. The market is unphased by the current budget impasse, and we do not foresee needing to adjust our forecasts or strategies because of the wranglings in D.C.

The third quarter of 2025 was marked by improving market sentiment, driven by growing confidence that the Fed will initiate an ongoing easing campaign throughout year-end and into 2026. Inflation continued to build as new tariffs were implemented, but concern over the labor market pushed the Fed into a “dovish” narrative, igniting hopes for a more stimulative rate environment for the foreseeable future.

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GDP data is a mixed bag

The second quarter of 2025 enjoyed a strong burst of

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