Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Melissa at 7 a.m. Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.

Hurricane Melissa has strengthened into a Category 5 storm and is forecast to bring destructive winds and storm surge and "catastrophic flooding" to Jamaica through the day, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center said in a 2 p.m. ET advisory on Oct. 27 Melissa was located about 145 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph with higher gusts. Jamaican officials have evacuated low-lying areas and opened hundreds of shelters in preparation of "life-threatening" storm conditions.

On the forecast track, the hurricane center said the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, Oct. 28, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, Oct. 29.

Forecasters said some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday, Oct. 28, however the storm is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an "extremely powerful major hurricane," according to the hurricane center, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

"Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba," forecasters said in the advisory.

Hurricane Melissa path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

'Catastrophic' flash flooding, storm surge forecast in Jamaica, Cuba

A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin, while a hurricane watch is in effect for southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The hurricane center said Melissa is forecast to bring rainfall totals between 15 and 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, Oct. 29. Forecasters said "catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides" are likely.

For eastern Cuba, rainfall totals between 10 to 15 inches, with local amounts closer to 20 inches, are expected Monday, Oct. 27 through Wednesday, Oct. 29, resulting in "life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides," the hurricane center said.

Additionally, forecasters said a life-threatening storm surge is likely along the southern coast of Jamaica Monday night into Tuesday, Oct. 28, with peak storm surge heights potentially reaching 9 to 13 feet above ground level. The storm surge will be accompanied by "large and destructive waves," according to the NHC. There is also potential for significant storm surge along the southeastern coast of Cuba late Tuesday into Wednesday, Oct. 29, with peak storm surge heights potentially reaching 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

This story has been updated to add new information.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: See Hurricane Melissa tracker, projected path of Category 5 storm

Reporting by Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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