A recent document linked to the arrest of a Ukrainian scientist has sparked concerns about Russia's intentions regarding oil reserves in Antarctica. The three-page document outlines allegations against the scientist, Leonid Pshenichnov, and includes a statement expressing Russia's opposition to proposed marine protected areas in the region. The document states, "The implementation of these plans will … lead to the loss of the opportunity to develop hydrocarbon resources by Russia on the continental shelf of Antarctica."

Hydrocarbon resources primarily include fossil fuels such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal. The document was shared with the media by Ukraine's ambassador to Australia, who received it from Pshenichnov's legal team. Pshenichnov was detained by Russian authorities in occupied Crimea last month, preventing him from attending an Antarctic conservation conference in Hobart. Russia has accused him of threatening national security by supporting a push for marine protected areas in Antarctica, which it believes could hinder its economic interests in krill fishing.

Ukraine's ambassador, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, described the allegations against Pshenichnov as "ludicrous," asserting that they reflect a political prosecution. He stated, "It doesn't take much to understand that it's a political prosecution."

The Antarctic Treaty’s Environmental Protocol, known as the Madrid Protocol, was signed in 1991 and prohibits commercial mining in Antarctica and surrounding waters. Article 7 of the protocol clearly states, "Any activity relating to mineral resources, other than scientific research, shall be prohibited." The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Australia emphasized that all parties must adhere to this mining ban, which includes any hydrocarbon exploration or extraction.

At a recent meeting of 26 member countries, proposals to establish new marine protected areas and revise krill catch limits were rejected, while existing management measures for krill were rolled back. Evan Bloom, an Antarctic researcher and former U.S. diplomat, expressed confusion over the Russian document's reference to hydrocarbon resources. He noted, "It's a very strange thing to say because it is something which, under international law, the Russian Federation cannot do."

Bloom questioned whether this indicates a potential interest from certain segments of the Russian government in pursuing mining in Antarctica. He expressed hope that there is a misunderstanding and that Russia is not actively considering such actions, stating, "Any sort of mining undertaken by a party to the treaty would be extremely disruptive and would create a crisis in the treaty system."

The Russian government and its Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute did not respond to requests for comment regarding the document or its stance on Antarctic oil. The Russian Embassy in Australia declined to provide any comments.

Concerns about Russia's interest in Antarctica's mineral resources have been raised before. A UK parliamentary committee reported in June that the Russian state-owned vessel Alexander Karpinsky conducted seismic surveys in Antarctic waters, identifying potential hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 70 billion tonnes. The committee's report questioned the compliance of these activities with the protocol's prohibition and urged the international community to act decisively against any attempts to undermine the protocol's safeguards.

The environmental protocol is sometimes misinterpreted as having a 50-year expiry date. However, from 2048, any country with decision-making powers in the Antarctic Treaty System can call for a review of the protocol's operations. Despite this, experts believe it is unlikely that the mining ban will be overturned or modified. Tony Press, an adjunct professor at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, stated, "Russia is bound by the current provisions of the Antarctic Treaty's environmental protocol."

Press, who previously led the Australian Antarctic Division, criticized Russia's justification for prosecuting Pshenichnov based on its interest in Antarctic resources. He called for other countries to challenge Russia's statements regarding hydrocarbon resources, emphasizing the need for clarity on this issue.