Virginia and New Jersey governor races take place in November.

High-stakes governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey this year will set the stage for the 2026 midterm elections as Democrats vie to flip control of Congress and Republicans attempt to maintain their slim majority for the remainder of President Donald Trump's second term.

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has consistently led her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by about 10 points in polls. New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill, meanwhile, is in a dead heat against Republican Jack Ciattarelli based on recent polling in that race.

New Jersey and Virginia voters have a track record of electing a governor from the opposite party of the president. Here's a look at how those states have voted in the past:

Up until 2021, New Jersey had elected a governor from the opposite party as the sitting president since 1989. Democrat Phil Murphy broke that record.

Virginia voters, meanwhile, have voted for the non-White House party in every governor’s race since 1977, except for 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe secured a victory during President Barack Obama's second term in office.

Whit Ayers, a longtime Republican strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research, described the pattern as a key factor he and other political analysts are looking at in this year’s races.

“It is a stunningly consistent pattern that literally goes back to Jimmy Carter's presidency,” he said of the Virginia trend. “Now the question is what happens with Donald Trump back in the White House.”

Every four years, the two gubernatorial races are viewed as barometers of the American electorate’s feelings toward the political party in power, given that they are the first major elections to fall after the president’s inauguration.

This year is no exception. Trump’s name is nowhere on the ballot, but he has been a major player in both races. Although Virginia and New Jersey leaned Democratic in the 2024 presidential elections, Trump made inroads in both states. In New Jersey, he decreased his margin of defeat by 10% from his loss in 2020.

Ciattarelli, once a never-Trump Republican, has leaned into the president’s endorsement. He told the USA TODAY Network he speaks with Trump every couple of weeks.

SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Getty Images; Reuters; The Record

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: See why Virginia and New Jersey's elections matter this year

Reporting by Jennifer Borresen and Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect