Elections are underway in New York City, and the mayor’s race is shaping up to be a close call between Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent. It’s a reminder that internet fame is just part of running a successful campaign – what really matters is making sure people go out and vote.

In a Suffolk University poll of likely voters published Oct. 27, Cuomo sliced into Mamdani’s lead after months of the state assemblyman leading the race by double digits. The survey still found Mamdani ahead with 44% support, but Cuomo is now polling at 34% – making this race much closer than anyone might have anticipated just a month ago. Meanwhile, Republican nominee and meme machine Curtis Sliwa is at 11%.

A Quinnipiac University poll from early October shows similar results: Mamdani still ahead with 46% support from likely voters, while Cuomo trailed behind slightly with 33% of the vote and Sliwa followed with 15% support.

Prior to the past few weeks, it was assumed that Mamdani would coast to victory after his surprise upset in the Democratic primary election over the summer. Now, it’s looking like progressives are going to have to put up a fight, get out the vote and remind people why Mamdani should be the one to lead New York City forward.

Early voting is underway, and things aren't looking as good for Mamdani

It’s not just the polls that Mamdani should be worried about – data on those who have already voted is also cause for concern.

According to data we have from the first weekend of early voting, more than half of the voters who have turned out have been 55 or older. In the Quinnipiac poll, voters ages 50 to 64 were evenly split between Mamdani and Cuomo, while voters 65 and older slightly favor Cuomo.

This is surprising considering the results of the June primary elections, when voters ages 25 to 34 made up the largest share of early voters. Voters in that age range overwhelmingly support Mamdani and played a large part in the 34-year-old democratic socialist receiving the Democratic nomination over Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams.

Now, 25- to 34-year-olds have made up just under 16% of early voters.

All of this should concern Mamdani’s team. Polls are often wrong, as we learned in the 2024 presidential election. And it seems that, despite a lot of baggage, Cuomo is gaining ground following a decent performance at the second debate and Adams’ endorsement. It’s not a done deal, but it does seem like it’s going to be a lot closer than Mamdani’s team is likely comfortable with.

This race isn't just about NYC mayor. It's about the future of the Democratic Party.

All of this serves as a reminder that social media clout only goes so far – what really matters is having a deep presence in the community and getting people to go out and vote. Mamdani’s team was expansive during the primary election, but he’s been a bit more measured in his approach to the general election, and that could be a problem.

Instagram stories don't count as ballots, so if young people don't show up to the polls with a friend or three, this is ours to lose.

Mamdani needs to do one last push to get out the vote before we can call this election. He’s made a handful of important appearances in recent days – including a 10,000-person rally in Queens and a visit to a mosque in the Bronx to discuss recent attacks on his Muslim identity. He needs to keep these appearances up and focus on rallying voters who are sure to turn out for him instead of trying to win over moderates.

As a progressive who lives in New York City, I see what Mamdani’s campaign means for people my age. This race is about more than just who becomes mayor – it’s a fight for the future of the Democratic Party nationwide. It’s about the potential that we can have bold new ideas from young leaders. Mamdani is still poised to win – but he can’t stop fighting now.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Sara Pequeño on X, formerly Twitter: @sara__pequeno

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mamdani doesn't have the NYC mayor election in the bag. We can't give up now. | Opinion

Reporting by Sara Pequeño, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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