Budget 2025 • UK Fiscal Strategy

Oxford Economics urges the Chancellor to pair higher fiscal headroom with broader growth reforms and targeted spending restraint in the November 26 Budget.

Public debt has risen from 37% to 95% of GDP over two decades.

Expected tightening of £20–30 billion meets rules but leaves vulnerabilities intact.

Oxford Economics proposes ~£35 billion in tightening with materially higher headroom.

Driving the news

The Budget is likely to tighten policy by £20–30 billion to satisfy the fiscal rules by 2029–30.

Oxford Economics argues this would be a minimal fix that fails to address weak potential growth and persistent spending pressures.

The debt ratio has climbed faster than in any other advanced economy and could rise further if shocks recur.

A consoli

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