When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping emerged from their "historic" talks in Busan , South Korea on Friday, there were enough wins for both sides to claim success.

China had "paused" its restrictions on rare earth exports and agreed to buy American soybeans while America had wound back punitive tariffs.

But what about the underlying forces driving these frictions, the defining great power rivalry of the 21 st century? Who has emerged with the greater leverage for the inevitable contests to come?

Was it the world's apex military power, builder of alliances and guardian of the liberal order?

Or was it the coming giant? On this score, things are less favourably poised for the US.

According to the well-known "Thucydides trap" theory, when a dominant power is met by an emerging one, war bec

See Full Page