The 2026 midterm elections are a year away, but they’ve been on President Donald Trump’s mind a lot lately, and for good reason.

The party in power at the White House typically loses congressional seats during campaign years when there's no presidential race, leaving Trump fighting an uphill battle to protect his congressional majorities and secure more second-term wins.

With his legacy on the line and concerns within his party about the enthusiasm of the GOP base amid a softening economy and persistent cost-of-living concerns, Trump again is proving that he’s willing to take unusual steps to maintain Republican control of both chambers in Congress during the final two years before the next presidential election.

Trump said in a Sept. 16 post on Truth Social that the GOP would hold a midterm convention as the party looks to build excitement. Such conventions are costly and typically only happen every four years when the White House is on the line.

It's also just one of many steps Trump is taking to help Republicans maintain power long after his two terms are up. The president also is working to rebrand his signature new law, which delivered a slew of tax cuts and slashed programs such as Medicaid, and promote an aggressive tariff program that many voters view with skepticism. Earlier in 2025, Trump began pushing GOP-controlled states to conduct a rare mid-decade redistricting of congressional maps in the hope of securing more Republican-leaning House seats. Vice President JD Vance kicked off the midterm campaigning with a series of rallies, including Sept. 17 in a swingy Michigan House district.

Democrats argue Trump's second term has been chaotic and hasn't improved the lives of working families, and that he soon will face a reckoning at the ballot box. The party has overperformed in special elections this year in places such as Iowa, Florida and Wisconsin, where a liberal state Supreme Court justice won against a candidate heavily backed by former Trump adviser Elon Musk. Trump’s midterm maneuvering is out of desperation, Democrats say.

"It is a sign of weakness that they're doing it," Curtis Hertel, Michigan Democratic Party chair, said of redistricting.

Republicans argue Trump is committed to winning.

“President Trump is leading with bold, innovative ideas to energize our Party and keep us on the path to victory," Kiersten Pels, Republican National Committee Press Secretary, said of the unusual push to hold a midterm convention.

Will MAGA turn out without Trump?

Republicans face a familiar problem in 2026: Trump won’t be on the ballot, and recent history suggests his MAGA backers are less likely to turn out without him. The GOP won the House during the election held smack in the middle of President Joe Biden's term, as Democrats did at the midway point of Trump's first term and the Republicans did during the presidencies of both Barack Obama in 2010 and Bill Clinton in 1994.

Trump's presidency is unusual, though. He is only the second U.S. president in history to serve a nonconsecutive second term, after Grover Cleveland. The last time this scenario played out came in 1894, when Cleveland's Democratic Party suffered big losses to Republicans.

Polling shows Democrats are more fired up in opposition to Trump’s presidency than Republicans are in support of it. Meanwhile, Vance has been sounding the alarm about 2026. The Vice President is viewed by many as the heir to Trump's MAGA movement, and a poor midterm showing could affect Vance's own political prospects.

Vance began traveling the country over the summer to gin up enthusiasm for the Trump administration’s policies, some of which are polling poorly. Vance was in Michigan Sept. 17 in the Lansing-area swing district of GOP Rep. Tom Barrett where he touted the administration’s signature new law. Barrett's is one of 18 seats viewed as a toss-up by nonpartisan election handicapper The Cook Political Report.

The midterm landscape remains unsettled just over a year before Election Day. The murder of GOP activist Charlie Kirk has enflamed political tensions and fired up Republicans, who have turned his death into a rallying cry.

Top Republicans such as Vance are urging supporters to carry on Kirk’s legacy. The murder also has prompted Trump administration officials to promise a crackdown on left-leaning groups they accuse of fomenting violence.

How these developments factor into the midterms remains to be seen, with more than 365 days until the election and more twists that could shape the race likely. But such contests typically are a referendum on the party that controls the White House, giving the GOP reason to be concerned.

“I think people are ready for change,” Hertel, the Michigan Democratic chair, said.

Vance: 'Anger usually wins midterm elections'

Top Republicans have increasingly raised concerns about the midterms, warning that the election will be challenging as they seek to motivate base voters.

Vance, in a Fox News interview earlier in September with Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, delivered “bad news” about the election cycle. He said one of the president’s pollsters “once told me that anger usually wins midterm elections.”

“And because we've done so much of what we said we were going to do – our people aren’t angry,” he added.

The left, meanwhile, is “very angry right now and they’re very motivated,” Vance said.

Polling backs that up.

A recent Pew survey found Trump’s approval rating at 38%, with just 27% of Americans saying they “very strongly” approve of the president. Meanwhile, 47% say they “very strongly” disapprove.

Even among Republicans and Republican-leaning individuals, just 54% strongly approve of Trump, while 80% of Democrats and those who are Democratic-leaning strongly disapprove.

The same survey found that Trump’s tariffs are opposed by 61% of Americans and more people oppose his signature legislation than support it.

A wobbly economy could also be a big concern for the GOP. The job market has been struggling, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates Sept. 17 – after months of pressure from Trump – in an attempt to boost economic activity.

Republicans have other potential pitfalls to navigate, including funding the government. A potential shutdown is looming if members of Congress can’t agree on a spending plan by midnight Oct. 1.

Hertel contends many Americans are “frustrated and angry” about Trump’s presidency. He believes Vance’s trip to Michigan was an attempt to salvage the prospects of a vulnerable Republican House member, but said the party faces a “tough sell.”

“I think he realizes that their numbers are terrible. … They absolutely realize that they are losing their base, but also the people that are in the middle, they’re actually bleeding on both ends,” Hertel said of Trump's convention push.

Democrats also are contemplating hosting a midterm convention, as the party looks to boost turnout and raise more money. Democratic messaging hasn’t been great in recent years, Hertel said, arguing the party needs to emphasize “kitchen table issues” such as the cost of living.

Lately, Trump is focusing on crime, an issue where the GOP traditionally has an advantage. The party also has incorporated Kirk into its midterm sales pitch.

At a rally Sept. 17 in Howell, Michigan, Vance praised the GOP congressman who represents the area and is expected to have a highly competitive race, promoted the tax cuts in Trump’s signature law and said Kirk was a big believer in the measure.

Whether that message still resonates a year from now could decide the fate of Trump's presidency.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump vs. the midterm blues: Can he get MAGA voters excited (and voting) in 2026?

Reporting by Zac Anderson, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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