Concerns about inflation and the rising cost of living are influencing the upcoming gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Nearly a year after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, these issues are at the forefront of voters' minds, potentially shaping the outcomes of these races and the political landscape leading into the 2026 midterms.

Dr. Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, noted that the theme of affordability resonates widely in these elections. "The theme of affordability is pretty widespread across these elections," she said. This focus on economic issues has also benefited candidates like Zohran Mamdani, a New York assemblyman who has gained traction in the mayoral race by promising to freeze rents for controlled apartments.

In New Jersey, the gubernatorial race features Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, both of whom are addressing cost-of-living concerns. Sherrill's platform includes expanding affordable housing through tax incentives for developers and declaring a state of emergency to freeze utility rate hikes. New Jersey has some of the highest residential electricity rates in the nation, with recent spikes of 17 to 20% reported over the summer.

Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state representative, is focusing on tax reductions, pledging to lower personal and corporate tax rates and expand property tax freezes for seniors. A recent Quinnipiac Poll indicated that 25% of likely voters consider taxes the most critical issue in their voting decisions. Some voters are holding outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy accountable for the state's economic challenges, which could complicate Sherrill's campaign. Kelsey Anthony, an attorney who voted for Ciattarelli, expressed her concerns, stating, "The last eight years have been really telling, and the current administration has really done a number on a lot of New Jersey families."

In Virginia, the economic impact of the government shutdown is particularly felt among federal workers. A recent poll revealed that about 60% of Americans blame Trump for the current inflation rate, with similar disapproval ratings for his handling of tariffs and the economy. Juliana, a single mother and clinical technician in Virginia, shared her struggles, saying, "Virginia's really expensive. In order for you to really make it, you need another person in your life that will work with you."

Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger, a former congresswoman, is emphasizing economic issues in her campaign, criticizing the Trump administration's trade policies and the effects of the government shutdown on Virginians. Meanwhile, Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has been challenging Spanberger on the Democratic Party's positions regarding government spending and economic management. As both states approach their elections, the focus on affordability and economic conditions is likely to play a significant role in determining voter preferences and party dynamics.