Typical areas of tropical development.

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

Forecasters are keeping a close watch on the Caribbean, where warm waters and a break in disruptive winds could set the stage for a new tropical system as hurricane season nears its end.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the southwestern Caribbean is under close observation for signs of tropical development in the coming weeks. It's the same area where Melissa developed into a Category 5 hurricane and one of the most powerful storms ever in the Atlantic basin.

"We are closely monitoring the southwestern Caribbean for signs of tropical development in the coming weeks," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Atmospheric conditions could support development through mid-November."

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Sunday, Nov. 30. 

Following Hurricane Melissa, which was the worst storm of the 2025 season, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is potential for another tropical storm or hurricane to develop that could impact lives and property. 

While much of the United States, from the central Gulf Coast to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, is unlikely to see wind or rain from a tropical system through mid-November, experts say the western Caribbean remains a zone of interest. 

The same area where Melissa developed into a Category 5 hurricane is being monitored for tropical development.

The same area where Melissa developed into a Category 5 hurricane is being monitored for tropical development.

AccuWeather

Strong westerly winds and an active jet stream are expected to limit development or keep storms away from the US mainland.

"If there is development in the western Caribbean, it likely would not be until the second week or toward the middle of the month with all conditions considered," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.

Historically, November produces one named storm about every two years, says AccuWeather. 

"In more recent years; however, November storms are becoming a bit more common," DaSilva noted. "In November of 2024, for example, there were 3 named storms in the Atlantic Basin, one of which reached hurricane strength.

"We are seeing an uptick in frequency with respect to late-season storms, which is likely due to the warmer sea surface temperatures observed."

While winds are increasing across much of the Atlantic, a quieter zone in the western Caribbean could still support storm formation. However, wind shear may increase at times, and some areas outside the Caribbean may also need monitoring for potential tropical development.

After hitting the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland and Labrador early this weekend, Melissa may track near Iceland and the northern British Isles next week as a wind and rainstorm.

The Caribbean remains warm enough to support additional tropical development in the coming weeks, with heat stored deep in the sea helping to fuel storms.

Check back to Daily Voice for updates.