Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.

Early voting for New York City’s mayoral race kicked off about a week ago, and turnout is smashing records—surpassing both the 2021 mayoral election and June’s Democratic primary, when democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani stunned the establishment with a comfortable win.

But what those big numbers actually mean is anyone’s guess. Early-voting data doesn’t show who’s casting ballots or which candidate stands to gain. The question looming over Tuesday’s election is simple: Can Mamdani really become New York’s next mayor?

Polling says he just might. In polls conducted since the start of August, an average of 45%

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