With midterm elections just about a year away, the signs of a blue wave are looking … well, grim.

At least that’s what the polls are showing.

Democrats have spent much of 2025 trying to dust off their defeats last November and figure out how to stay relevant in a federal government they no longer control.

The problem is, most Americans aren’t impressed with what they’re seeing. Democrats continue getting historically low marks among voters, and it’s hard to see them turning things around by November 2026.

The Democratic Party was in a much better position to take back Congress during President Donald Trump’s first term, and it’s helpful to compare where the party is now versus its standing in 2017.

The lead Democrats had ahead of the 2018 midterm elections isn't there now

A recent analysis of polling data by NBC News shows what a pickle Democrats are in ahead of next year’s midterms.

Of course, in the next year, many things could change for Democrats and Republicans. As of now, however, the wave Democrats achieved in 2018 looks out of reach.

As of Oct. 17, 2017, the RealClear Politics polling average on the generic congressional ballot showed a 9-point lead by Democrats. That lead continued over the next year, and Democrats gained 40 seats in the House – giving them control of that chamber.

This Oct. 17, things don’t look quite so rosy. The same RCP average shows that Democrats are only up by 1.6 points.

While Trump’s average approval is slightly higher – in the mid-40s – than it was during his first term, the same isn’t true for Democrats.

Earlier this year, the party scored its lowest positive rating – 27% – in the history of NBC News’ poll. And even though Republicans aren’t wildly popular, either, they continue to outscore Democrats. In 2017, the Democrats had the advantage.

(And as an aside, for the liberals who like to point and laugh at Trump’s approval rating, some perspective is in order. Since the end of July, Trump’s second-term approval is higher than that of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush at the same time during their second terms.)

Democrats turn to their favorite, tired tactic: 'Resist'

Not only is the party unpopular, an October CBS News/YouGov poll found 64% of those surveyed use “weak” as the top word to describe Democrats.

So what’s a Democrat to do? The answer seems to be “fight” and “resist.”

Congressional Democratic leaders are banking that the ongoing government shutdown – nearing its third week – will make them look tough and strong.

Yet, forcing the government to a standstill is a risky move. And it’s already starting to sour for Democrats. At first, voters seemed to pin more of the blame on Republicans and Trump. That gap is narrowing quickly, given that it is pretty obvious it's the Democrats’ fault for not signing on to a simple bill that would keep the government running while the parties work out their differences.

Only 6 points now separate the Republicans (39%) from the Democrats (33%), as to which party deserves shutdown blame, according to a poll by YouGov/The Economist.

Over the weekend, Democrats went into full resistance mode, with a second round of “No Kings” protests across the country.

Protests (think the Women’s March) from Trump’s first term did seem to encourage Democrats to the polls in the 2018 midterms – especially women – but this new iteration of the marches doesn’t appear to hold quite the same fervor.

Democrats may detest Trump, but that alone will not build the wave they’ll need in 2026.

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on X: @Ingrid_Jacques

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Don't count on a blue wave in midterms. Most Americans say Democrats are 'weak.' | Opinion

Reporting by Ingrid Jacques, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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