Sun sets on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on Monday. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

It’s Election Day 2025 . And the results in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere Tuesday could be some of the most significant dominoes to fall in the federal government shutdown, which is set to become the longest in history on Wednesday.

But the election isn’t the only X factor in the monthlong shutdown that’s evolving even as we speak.

Let’s check in on a number of key variables and sources of potential leverage in the shutdown and how they’re playing.

Election Day 2025

The big ones to watch here are the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.

(The New York City mayor’s race and a redistricting ballot measure in California are fascinating for other reasons, but less instructive when it com

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