Not renewing subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act would disproportionately affect Republican states, particularly in the South, according to analysts.

The issue is at the heart of the longest-ever federal government shutdown as Democrats have been pushing for an extension of the subsidies, while Republicans want to let them expire at the end of the year.

For now, the online marketplace for ACA health plans is pricing in rates without the subsidies. Open enrollment for coverage in 2026 began this month, with premiums more than doubling on average, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group. That’s due to the ACA subsidies expiring and insurers hiking rates.

In an Oct. 23 note, Oxford Economics senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin pointed out th

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