When demand for their product or service declines, private organizations react by downsizing or closing. But public sector entities often fight for survival by creating artificial demand. Such is the case in the world of higher education.

Due to decreasing fertility and immigration, the supply of students and consequently the demand for college is starting to fall. According to the Department of Finance, the number of California high school graduates peaked at 454,768 in 2024 and is expected to decline to 362,165 by 2043. This decline is mostly baked in since 2043 graduates are being born in 2025. It would take large scale family in-migration to turn this trajectory around, but, given California’s high cost of living, such a development is unlikely.

Colleges in California could offset

See Full Page