Bihar elections: How accurate have predictions been in the past; who came closest to the mark?

NEW DELHI: Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly elections are set to be released after the second and final phase of the “mother of all polls” concludes on Tuesday. All eyes will be on whether the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to retain power or if the Mahagathbandhan will emerge victorious. Ahead of the results, scheduled for November 14, exit polls will offer an early glimpse of how Bihar voted. However, exit polls are not always accurate — in fact, the past two predictions by psephologists and political analysts for Bihar Assembly polls were not just off the mark but far from reality. The Assembly elections were held in two phases — on November 6 and November 11. In the first phase, half of Bihar went to the polls, recording a historic turnout o