Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Tuesday warned that flight disruptions could skyrocket in the coming days if the House of Representatives does not vote to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Ongoing government-mandated flight cancellations and severe weather in parts of the country have continued to wreak havoc on air travel. In a news conference Tuesday afternoon from Chicago O'Hare International Airport, Duffy urged lawmakers to approve the bipartisan bill to reopen the government.

"If the House doesn’t act, I think we’ll see more than 10% disruption — and possibly airlines grounding planes altogether," Duffy said. "That’s how serious this is."

As of Tuesday night, FlightAware data showed more than 1,200 cancellations and over 3,300 delays for flights within, into, or out of the United States. Monday saw over 2,400 cancellations, while more than 14,000 total disruptions occurred on Sunday.

The percentage of flights required to be cut by the Federal Aviation Administration was originally expected to increase to 6% from 4% at 40 major airports on Tuesday, the first bump on the ramp-up to a full 10% of cuts by Friday. Duffy said Tuesday that he will reduce flight cuts as safety allows.

"When that data changes, we're going to start taking that down from 6%, maybe we'll go to four, two, and get back to normal air travel," he said. "It depends on controllers coming back to work."

Air traffic control staffing shortages improved on Tuesday after more than two dozen issues on Monday. Duffy said just four staffing issues were reported Tuesday, down from 81 on Saturday.

Thousands of flights have been cut since Duffy ordered the cancellations to begin last Friday, Nov. 7. On Monday, the travel woes were compounded by a Chicago-area winter storm that grounded even more flights.

Flight cancellations improve after days of travel chaos

Air traffic control staffing shortages, along with weather issues, have led to tens of thousands of flight cancellations and delays since Oct. 1 when the government shutdown began.

Over the weekend, 1.2 million passengers were delayed or had their flights cancelled due to air traffic controller absences, according to Reuters. FlightAware data showed that there were 1,025 cancellations on Friday and 1,566 on Saturday for flights "within, into, or out of the United States."

Flight cancellations jumped to 2,954 on Sunday and 2,422 on Monday, according to FlightAware. By 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, data showed that 1,250 flights had been canceled as air traffic control staffing improved for the day.

Airlines and FAA are discussing when to end flight cuts

The FAA ordered airlines to cut 4% of daily flights — starting on Nov. 7 — at 40 major airports due to air traffic control staffing issues. Reductions in flights rose to 6% on Tuesday.

The reductions were set to hit 8% on Thursday and 10% on Friday. Reuters reported that some airlines were holding off on cutting 8% of flights for Thursday. United Airlines said Tuesday it cut about 5% of its flights for Thursday.

Airlines and the FAA said they are in discussions about when the cuts will stop as the government shutdown nears an end. Experts previously told USA TODAY that the impact on air travel will stretch well beyond the shutdown's end as airlines work to untangle complicated flight schedules and recover from staff shortages.

"It's going to be a step-up, phased-in approach to cutting flights," said Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, an independent travel analytics firm. "For an airline to be told by the government they’ve got 36 or so hours to start dismembering their carefully built flight schedules doesn’t give airlines a lot of time."

$10K bonuses for FAA employees? Duffy on Trump’s promises for workers

President Donald Trump has alternatively threatened to "dock" the pay of workers who don’t show or told them to quit and promised $10,000 bonuses for employees who continued working.

Duffy called the president’s offered bonuses "brilliant" while stopping short of guaranteeing them.

"The air traffic controllers who didn't miss a day, they came for every scheduled shift that they had. They should get a bonus," said Duffy, adding that the exact amount would be contingent on an analysis. He called the workers "patriots" and said they should be invited to the White House to receive their checks.

He also stopped short of telling workers who failed to show up not to return.

"I'm concerned about those controllers. I'm concerned about their dedication. I'm concerned about their patriotism," the secretary said. "We haven't made a decision, but we are going to look at those controllers."

— Michael Loria

Lawmakers face one last hurdle to end shutdown: Flying to DC

Speaker Mike Johnson needs enough members of the House of Representatives to make it back to Washington by Wednesday night to vote to reopen the government. The shutdown is causing travel issues so widespread that those very lawmakers may not all get back to D.C. in time to do their jobs.

For nearly two months, many House members have been residing in their districts while the speaker kept them away from Washington and their day jobs voting on bills. The pressure tactic was meant to force Democratic senators into reopening the government without major concessions from Republicans.

By Sunday, when lawmakers in the Senate finally reached a bipartisan deal to end the historic crisis, nearly half of all domestic flights were either canceled or delayed. It didn't take long for Johnson to shift his marching orders.

"You need to begin, right now, returning to the Hill," he said in a message to lawmakers Monday morning. "We have to do this as quickly as possible." Read more here.

— Zachary Schermele

'We have to live today': Duffy promises modernization of air traffic tech

Among goals for the FAA under Duffy, the transportation secretary promised to modernize equipment air traffic controllers use.

"Air traffic controllers need brand new equipment," said Duffy, noting air traffic controllers are still using paper flight strips which he called "great 1985 technology" but outdated. "It’s a blast from the past but we should live today and technology from today."

Congress has allocated $12.5 billion to the FAA, said Duffy, short of the $31.5 billion he says is needed for the program he envisions.

In addition to changing to digital flight strips, the secretary said he wants to build a digital platform for managing the skies. Duffy estimated the program would take more than three years. He said the agency would likely look to hire a private company for the project.

"The FAA does a great job at safety, they don't know how to build," Duffy said. We’re going to have radios, new voice switches, new radar, new telecom, we’re going to have to switch from analog to digital."

— Michael Loria

When can air traffic controllers expect to be paid after the government shutdown ends?

Air traffic controllers will receive 70% of their back pay within 24 to 48 hours after the government reopens, with the remaining 30% arriving about a week later, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on a news conference on Nov. 11.

"They’re going to get money in their bank accounts very quickly," he said, thanking Congress for ensuring controllers are "made whole" after working without pay during the shutdown.

Shortages of air traffic controllers is one of the key reasons the FAA ordered flight reductions at 40 airports across the nation starting Nov. 7. He said the FAA is still short about 2,000 air traffic controllers.

Duffy urges House to act and vote to end the government shutdown

During a news conference in Chicago, Duffy urged the House to follow the Senate and vote to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

If the House doesn't act and the government remains shuttered, Duffy warned of dire consequences for the nation's air traffic system. Some airlines, he said, may choose to ground their fleets.

"If the House doesn’t pass this bill, I think you’re going to look at Saturday, Sunday and Monday as tiddlywinks. It was beautiful. It’s going to get much worse than that."

Travel system has potential for 'real disruption' if government doesn't reopen, Duffy says

Duffy said Tuesday the travel system is slowly stabilizing after a chaotic weekend of delays and cancellations caused by air traffic controller shortages during the government shutdown.

"Saturday, Sunday, and Monday were very rough travel days," he said, "however, today has been a much better day."

"I don’t have a crystal ball for you, but I can tell you what we’re seeing with all of our equities, there will be real disruption," Duffy said when asked by a reporter about massive disruptions that may be ahead if the government doesn't reopen.

"Oh, I think it's going to be more than 10%. I think we might find airlines that have to make decisions, do they keep flying? If this doesn’t open, you might have airlines that say ‘We’re going to ground our planes. We’re not going to fly anymore.' That’s how serious this is," he continued.

United CEO thanks employees for work during historic flight cuts

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby thanked employees on Tuesday for working through the weekend as the company cut hundreds of flights in response to the FAA directive.

Kirby said the weekend, during which flight delays topped 10,000, saw more FAA staffing triggers than ever before. Despite the disruptions, Kirby said the company saw some of the highest net promoter scores, which measure how likely a customer is to promote United to their friends, family or colleagues, since 2022.

“It's clear that the way that you have come together to take care of our customers has made an impact and is a genuine reflection of Good Leads The Way," Kirby wrote in his letter to employees.

Can you cancel your flight and get a refund?

The four major airline operators in the U.S. – Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and American Airlines – have canceled hundreds of flights to adhere to the FAA's reduction demands.

The good news for stressed travelers? All four carriers have nixed the usual fines and fees that would apply to last-minute changes and cancellations, even for tickets that are usually non-refundable.

And smaller mainland U.S. airlines, including JetBlue, Alaska/Hawaiian Airlines, Spirit, and Frontier, are taking a cue from the big four, offering similar fee-free changes and cancellations. Here's what to know about how to change or cancel your trip.

— Mary Walrath-Holdridge

Incoming atmospheric river storm will cause more flight problems

Folks flying through or to California are in for a rough ride this week, weather forecasters cautioned.

Air – and road – travelers will likely confront weather delays in the West, including California, as a potent atmospheric river storm slams the region late Wednesday and on Thursday.

In California, travelers should anticipate hazardous road and air travel throughout the state, AccuWeather warned, which added that "the combination of drenching rain, heavy mountain snow and strong winds will likely cause transportation delays, affect freight and airline operations, and increase risks of power interruptions and mudslides."

Heavy snow will wreak road havoc in the mountains, while coastal and valley areas see heavy, potentially flooding rain and even mudslides. All the airports in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas are forecast to see rain, potentially sparking delays and cancellations.

Meanwhile, travelers in the East will continue to endure heavy snow near the Great Lakes and frigid cold as far south as Florida.

— Doyle Rice

Which airports are the worst for cancellations and delays today?

As of Tuesday afternoon, flight cancellations and delays were most pronounced at airports in New York City, Chicago, Atlanta and Washington, D.C., with a few other areas also facing higher issues, according to FlightAware data for flights between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. ET.

The single airport facing the most issues at about 12:30 p.m. was Chicago O'Hare International Airport, with 40 delays and 22 cancellations. Chicago has seen cancellations due to winter weather in addition to government-mandated cuts in recent days. Chicago Midway International Airport had another five delays and four cancellations.

At New York regional airports, a combined 89 delays and 28 cancellations were impacting travelers during that time period.

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, which serves as a major hub for Delta Air Lines, had 24 delays and 14 cancellations from 10 to 2.

Will 'unprecedented' flight disruptions impact Thanksgiving travel plans?

Though mandated flight cuts impact 40 of the nation's airports and air carriers are mainly cutting service through their regional partners, meaning flights between large hubs and smaller cities and towns are most likely to be affected, the entire system has become discombobulated. The effects are likely to stretch into the Thanksgiving holiday.

"Typically, with a storm, one airline can recover operations within 48 to 72 hours after the weather event has finished ‒ but that’s when one hub is impacted," Tiffany Funk, co-founder and president of the travel-tech company point.me, said. "This is unprecedented, and it's also storm season. I don't think we'll see equal recovery. Airports will come online at different rates, which means airlines won't be equally impacted."

Airlines for America, the industry’s main trade group, warned that “more than 3.5 million passengers have experienced delays or cancellations because of air-traffic-control staffing concerns since the shutdown began,” calling the situation “not sustainable” with an all-time-high 31 million passengers expected between Nov. 21 and Dec. 1.

— Zach Wichter

The next step to reopening the government could come on Wednesday

The House of Representatives could begin voting as early as 4 p.m. on Nov. 12 to approve legislation reopening the government and sending it to Trump for his signature. The House vote is the next step to reopening the government, which would begin the process of getting flight traffic back on track.

The Senate voted Nov. 10 on a funding patch through Jan. 30. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, notified lawmakers to return to the Capitol by Nov. 12, when the chamber will reconvene at noon. Multiple series of votes are expected. The House often votes on motions such as whether to adjourn or reconsider legislation before voting to finally approve a contentious bill.

— Bart Jansen

If you're traveling this week, here's what to expect

Despite the government shutdown expected to come to a close, travelers should still brace for delays and cancellations in the coming days.

“I would expect really bumpy operations and pretty brutal travel experiences, at least throughout the week,” said Tiffany Funk, co-founder and president of point.me, which specializes in points-based travel. “Even if funding were magically restored today, this is going to take a long time to reset.”

The longer the cancellations and flight disruptions continue, the longer it will take to restore, experts told USA TODAY, and the pace of recovery could vary at different airports and across airlines. Air traffic controllers, whose work can include long hours and mandated overtime, may not immediately return to work in full force.

In the meantime, Ahmed Abdelghany, associate dean for research at the David B. O'Maley College of Business at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, recommended travelers keep an eye on their flight’s status via the airline’s mobile app or website, and get to the airport “well in advance” in case there are long waits at security. He said it’s worth considering rebooking options – if flyers can travel at another time – and purchasing travel insurance, which may reimburse some costs if there are hiccups. And if you don't have to travel now, consider putting it off.

— Eve Chen

The essential, invisible work of air traffic controllers

Before the government shutdown, the nation's air traffic control system included just under 11,000 fully certified controllers – 30% fewer than the government says we need. That meant controllers were already consistently working six days a week, up to 10 hours a day on mandatory overtime, with vacations strictly limited.

"This situation creates substantial distractions for individuals who are already engaged in extremely stressful work," Nick Daniels, the president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association union, said in a statement. "The financial and mental strain increases risks within the National Airspace System, making it less safe with each passing day of the shutdown."

Becoming a certified controller takes years of training, usually starting at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City, followed by several years of closely supervised on-the-job practice.

Air traffic controller applicants need to meet vision and health standards, get mental-health assessments and commit to a high-stakes, high-stress job that's physically isolated from the travelers they serve every day. They need to be prepared to deal with midair fires, hijacking reports or medical emergencies at 36,000 feet or just feet from the terminal.

Read more.

— Trevor Hughes

Trump calls for pay cut for no-show air traffic controllers

On Monday, Trump threatened to cut the pay of air traffic controllers who don't show up to work and proposed bonuses to those who kept working through the shutdown.

Last week, the FAA reported that 20% to 40% of air traffic controllers were absent from work on any given day during the shutdown. Some looked for other jobs to make ends meet.

"I am NOT HAPPY WITH YOU," Trump said of air traffic controllers who stayed home from the job.

Contributing: James Powel, Kathryn Palmer, Zachary Schermele, Eve Chen, and Bart Jansen, USA TODAY; Reuters

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Transportation chief warns of air traffic consequences if government shutdown persists

Reporting by Jeanine Santucci, N'dea Yancey-Bragg, Eve Chen and Thao Nguyen, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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