OTTAWA — A recent poll indicates that Canadians have responded tepidly to the federal budget released last week, prompting concerns about its potential impact on future election campaigns. The Leger survey, conducted from November 7 to November 9, reveals that only 30 percent of respondents approve of the budget presented by Prime Minister Mark Carney's government on November 4. In contrast, 37 percent expressed disapproval, while the remaining participants had no opinion.

The survey, which included 1,565 adult Canadians, found that just 15 percent believe the budget will positively affect their personal lives, while 32 percent anticipate a negative impact. Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for central Canada, noted that although the Liberals gained support for significant initiatives like increased spending on defense and infrastructure, the budget fell short in addressing affordability concerns for many Canadians.

"Where the budget falls short — and I think this is probably the challenge for the government in the months ahead — is on the affordability equation, which was still a very, very important theme amongst voters," Enns stated.

The budget forecasts a deficit of $78.3 billion for the current fiscal year, alongside substantial new spending aimed at reducing Canada's economic dependence on the United States. According to the budget document, 42 percent of spending is focused on enhancing Canada’s sovereignty amid U.S. tariffs and changing global trade dynamics, while 36 percent targets affordability. However, the poll suggests that immediate economic relief measures were not a priority for most households.

A significant 55 percent of respondents indicated a desire for personal tax cuts in the budget, despite a one-percentage-point reduction in the lowest income tax bracket introduced in July. Enns remarked that this tax cut may have been overshadowed by other budget figures, highlighting a communication challenge for the government.

Despite the widespread sentiment that the budget does not adequately address the cost of living, approximately 42 percent of respondents supported prioritizing long-term growth over short-term affordability, while only 21 percent disagreed.

The budget is scheduled for a vote in the House of Commons next week, representing a critical test for the minority Liberal government. The recent switch of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservative Party to the Liberals has provided the government with an additional vote, but it will still require support from another party to pass. Failure to secure parliamentary approval could lead to an election.

Support for the budget was strongest among likely Liberal voters, but various budget items received cross-party backing. Conservative-leaning respondents were particularly supportive of measures aimed at reducing immigration levels, while NDP supporters favored local infrastructure funding for roads and health facilities.

Enns cautioned that all parties should be careful about opposing the budget in an election campaign, as the affordability gap remains a significant concern for voters. He added that U.S. tariffs may not resonate as strongly with the electorate as they did earlier this year.

"I think all parties, if they’re looking at this rationally, would be a little cautious about how aggressive they want to fight this — or fight on this — in an election campaign," Enns concluded.

The Canadian Research Insights Council states that online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error due to the lack of random sampling in the population.