Economists and the Reserve Bank predict the unemployment rate to edge lower, but worrying signs suggest the jobs market could weaken down the track.

After a shock jump in joblessness to 4.5 per cent in September, the unemployment rate is expected to unwind slightly and settle at 4.4 per cent in fresh labour force figures set to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

The trend line has been steadily moving upwards since the start of 2025.

But in their latest economic forecasts released in November, RBA economists predicted the unemployment rate would remain stable at 4.4 per cent for the foreseeable future.

Several indicators, such as low underemployment, an above-average share of firms struggling to find workers, a high ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers

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