The Fed’s Tariff Obsession Is Dangerous
Federal Reserve hawks may be on the verge of making a reckless bet based on incomplete information . They’re focused on their own conviction that a tariff-driven price increase in goods is building up behind the scenes, causing them to fear that further rate cuts risk reigniting inflation. But they’re ignoring substantial demand weakness in the underlying consumer data that undermines their entire case.
The hawks worry that businesses are currently absorbing tariff costs but will pass them along in 2026, creating persistent inflation. And although the headline inflation numbers were milder than expected in September, the hawks point to data showing that a measure of consumer prices excluding energy and food accelerated to 3.6 percent annualized

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