Traders on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the odds of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani 's deportation by the end of the year.

It’s considered a long shot, but the fact that traders are wagering on it at all is striking.

Mamdani, elected Nov. 4 to lead the nation’s largest city , steps into power with a mandate to transform New York and a growing chorus of detractors watching closely.

Among them is President Donald Trump , who has questioned Mamdani’s citizenship. Born in Uganda, Mamdani became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2018.

On Kalshi, the implied odds of Mamdani’s deportation have fallen to 3%, down from 8.5% on Nov. 5.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits a little over $10,000.

Meanwhile

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