India’s central bank could begin easing monetary policy as early as next month, according to Nikhil Gupta, India Economist at CLSA. He said the brokerage continues to expect a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut in December, followed by another 25-basis point reduction in February 2026.

“With this 0.3% inflation that came out for October, I’m sure the noise for a 50-bps rate cut will become louder,” Gupta said. However, he added that “even now, headline inflation will be back to 3.5–4% by the first quarter of the financial year 2026-27 (FY27).” Gupta said inflation is likely to remain below 1% in November, which would be the first such trend since 2000.

On growth, Gupta said India’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 8.4% this year and around 9.5% next year, marking the t

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