Was the Nov. 4 Democratic sweep an anomaly, or are Republicans truly in deep trouble?

A special election just three weeks away will give us the answer, and the implications stretch far beyond one congressional seat. The results could shape whether the GOP continues its push to redraw maps in several states—and whether they’re willing to continue working with President Donald Trump.

The congressional seat in Tennessee’s 7th District is open after GOP Rep. Mark Green announced his resignation in July. Democrat Aftyn Behn is facing Republican Matt Van Epps in a district that Trump carried 60% to 38% in 2024.

On paper, this should be a routine GOP handoff in a deeply conservative, mostly rural district. But Republicans are watching this race closely, because the margin could determine how a

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