The U.S. Commerce Department has launched an antidumping review targeting Italian pasta, claiming it’s sold below market prices.

This could lead to a 92% duty on top of an existing 15% tariff from the Trump administration.

News of the potential 107% tariff has sent shockwaves through Italy, where 13 producers would be subject to the whopping levy.

They say sales of their second biggest export market would shrivel if prices to American consumers more than double.

And while the measure would hardly prompt pasta shortages, it has still perplexed importers like Sal Auriemma, whose shop in Philadelphia’s Italian market, Claudio Specialty Food, has been operating for over 60 years.

“Pasta is a pretty small sector to pick on," said Auriemma.

"Pasta? It's basic food. Something's got to be sacred," he added.

Italian officials and industry leaders argue the tariffs lack evidence and could devastate small producers.

While Italy is a nation of avid pasta eaters, much of the tortellini, spaghetti and rigatoni its factories churn out gets sent abroad.

The U.S. accounts for about 15% of its €4 billion ($4.65 billion) in exports, making it Italy’s largest market after Germany, data from farmers’ association Coldiretti show.

The punitive pasta premium has become a cause célèbre for Italy’s politicians, executives and economists.

Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida told lawmakers in mid-October that the government was working with the European Commission and engaging in diplomatic efforts, while supporting the companies’ legal actions to oppose U.S. sanctions.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic addressed reporters in Rome last month, stressing the lack of evidence backing the U.S. decision and calling the combined 107% levy “unacceptable.”

Margherita Mastromauro, president of the pasta makers sector of Unione Italiana Food, told The Associated Press that prices for Italian pasta in the U.S. remain high, and certainly higher than American-made rivals — undermining any dumping claim.

She said that the measures could deal a fatal blow to small- and medium-sized producers.

The Commerce Department’s investigation started in 2024 after complaints from Missouri-based 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, which owns pasta brand Ronzoni, and Illinois-based Winland Foods, whose multiple brands include Prince, Mueller’s and Wacky Mac.

The office’s review focused on La Molisana and Garofalo, chosen as primary respondents because they are Italy’s two largest exporters, the Commerce Department said in an emailed statement.

Any sale price below either producers’ costs or the price they charge in the Italian market would be considered dumping, in line with numerous other reviews of Italian pasta since 1996, it said.

The two companies presented information incorrectly or withheld it, significantly impeding analysis, according to the Commerce Department.

And in the face of these alleged deficiencies, the office presented its 92% duty estimate, which it extended to 11 other companies based on an assumption the two companies’ behavior was representative.

The sanctions would be applied not just to imports going forward, but also the 12 months through June 2024, according to the Commerce Department.

It added that only 16% of total Italian pasta imports may be affected.

Its final decision is scheduled for Jan. 2, which could be extended by 60 days.

AP video by Paolo Santalucia and Tassanee Vejpongsa