Prime Minister Mark Carney's government is at a critical juncture as Canada’s House of Commons prepares to vote on a proposed budget that aims to increase borrowing for military and infrastructure spending. The vote is scheduled for Monday, and the budget must pass to prevent a new election. Carney's Liberal Party holds 170 seats, just two short of a majority. As of Sunday morning, the voting intentions of all opposition members remained uncertain.

Elizabeth May, the only elected member of the Green Party, stated in an interview with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation that she is currently opposed to the budget. "Right now, I’m a no," she said, although she did not completely rule out the possibility of changing her stance.

The fiscal plan, which was unveiled on November 4, projects an additional $167.3 billion in deficits over the next five years compared to previous government forecasts. The budget includes significant spending increases for defense, housing, and new initiatives such as port expansions, aimed at diversifying Canada’s export markets beyond the United States.

If the government cannot secure two votes from opposition members, it can still survive if at least four opposition members choose to abstain. The New Democratic Party (NDP), which holds seven seats and is currently undergoing a leadership contest, is viewed as a potential ally for the government due to its significant debt burden.

Cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc expressed confidence in the budget's prospects, stating, "No, I’m not worried. I think there are all kinds of good reasons why different members or opposition parties want the budget to be passed."

In the April election, Carney's Liberals won the popular vote and secured the most seats, with key issues including U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his confrontational approach toward Canada. However, recent polls indicate a tight race between the Liberals and the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.

Poilievre criticized the budget, asserting, "One hundred percent of our members of Parliament oppose the costly Carney credit card budget that is going to drive up the cost of food, housing and living for Canadians."

Canada has not experienced two elections within a 12-month period since 1979 and 1980, when a second election was triggered by a failed budget vote. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne urged opposition members to support the budget, emphasizing the fragile state of the economy. "It’s not a time for political games, it’s not the time for posturing, this is time to fight for Canada, fight together, meet the moment, elevate yourself above politics," he said.