Democrats are citing their recent victories in New Jersey, Virginia and other blue-leaning places as evidence that their electoral troubles are behind them.

This is obviously premature in many ways--the party that loses a presidential election usually has a good election the next year and an even better and more consequential one two years later (for Congress). The victories were also, for the most part, predictable, even if the margin in a couple of instances was larger than expected.

To the extent that what happened two weeks ago encourages Democrats to avoid the hard work of post-2024 reform (in a centrist direction), those minor victories could turn out to be a cause of more and bigger defeats later.

Of course, the election result that mattered most was the victory of socialist Zohr

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