One measure used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland says there’s a 24% chance that the U.S. economy was in recession last month. But the bank warns that the measure has become less reliable in recent years.

Even so, signs are mounting that if the economy isn’t already in recession, it could be soon, with major banks this fall indicating high odds of it.

The Cleveland Fed and 11 other regions conduct surveys on regional economic conditions eight times a year by questioning businesses, community organizations, economists, and other sources for its Beige Book .

The findings from all 12 regions are used by the Federal Open Market Committee as it sets monetary policy, in part by establishing key interest rates .

The region represented by the Cleveland Fed includes all of Ohio and

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