Democrats caved on the six-week shutdown, despite polling showing them narrowly winning the public opinion battle. But even that polling may have understated how much the shutdown hurt Republicans. President Donald Trump himself blamed it for the GOP’s miserable electoral performance two weeks ago.

The cave was stupid. But it raises a different question worth examining: What would winning have actually looked like?

Democrats’ core demand was reinstating Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies. They didn’t get them. But imagine they had.

Those subsidies are used disproportionately by rural, red-state conservatives. “Nearly six in ten Marketplace enrollees (57%) live in congressional districts represented by a Republican,” reported KFF. “Generally, enrollment in ACA Marketplace cov

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