India’s agricultural paradox—rising output, rising imports, and a shrinking trade surplus

A curious shift has been occurring within India’s trade data. Despite the nation celebrating unprecedented foodgrain harvests and increased horticultural production, the latest official figures from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics indicate that agricultural and allied imports have increased over two consecutive years, rising from $ 52.67 billion in 2022-23 to $ 62.52 billion in 2024-25.

In contrast, exports have remained relatively stagnant. As a result, there is a diminishing net surplus in a sector where India should be strengthening its global competitive advantage. The concern is not that India is increasingly reliant on imports across all sectors — some strategic imports will invariably be economically justified — but rather that the t