CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Every winter in the Carolinas has its own personality. Some years are warm and quiet, others sneak in a surprise snowstorm, and occasionally we hit the jackpot with cold outbreaks and big snow totals. With the 2025–26 season approaching this year’s setup is meteorologically fascinating —and yes, very geek-worthy—because it hinges on a transitioning ENSO pattern , a weak La Niña , and several high-latitude “wild cards” that can make or break Southern winters.

Let’s break it down.

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) is the background driver of winter patterns across North America. Last winter’s strong El Niño is long gone. Now the Pacific is cooling, but not aggressively. This places us in a very weak La Niña and maybe even borderline neutral phase of ENSO.

A Transition

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