Canada is reassessing its defense strategy amid concerns about its reliance on the United States. Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the need for Canada to diversify its security relationships and reduce dependence on U.S. military support. In March, shortly after taking office, Carney stated, "It is clear that our security relationship … is too focused on the United States. We must diversify."

As part of this shift, Carney has initiated a review of a $19 billion contract to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. While Canada is committed to acquiring the first 16 jets, it is exploring alternative options for the remaining aircraft. One potential alternative is Sweden's Saab Gripen fighter jet, which has been promoted as a viable replacement.

This week, King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia of Sweden led a delegation to Canada, accompanied by top business and political figures, including Sweden's defense and industry ministers. The visit aimed to showcase the benefits of the Gripen fighter, which could offer significant industrial and technological advantages to Canada. Saab's CEO, Micael Johansson, suggested that a partnership with Bombardier could create 10,000 jobs and facilitate technology transfers to Canada.

Carney's push for self-reliance aligns with his broader goal of transforming Canada's economy and reducing vulnerability to global shocks. However, this strategy carries risks, particularly in terms of U.S.-Canada relations. The U.S. has a history of reacting strongly to perceived slights, and Carney is aware of the potential backlash from the Trump administration.

In the past, Canada faced repercussions for actions that upset the U.S., such as Ontario Premier Doug Ford's anti-tariff ad campaign, which led to an apology from Carney. Trade negotiations between the two countries remain stalled, with Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc indicating that Canada will not wait for the U.S. to resolve its internal issues.

The prospect of Canada abandoning the F-35 in favor of the Gripen could provoke a negative response from Washington. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has warned that such a decision could jeopardize the joint NORAD defense alliance.

As Canada navigates this complex landscape, the question remains: how long will it continue to seek to appease a U.S. president known for unpredictable reactions? The recent suspension of trade talks over the Ontario ad campaign illustrates the challenges Canada faces in maintaining a stable relationship with its southern neighbor. With formal agreements subject to change at any moment, Canada must carefully consider its next steps in defense procurement and international relations.