"Inside the Markets Aggregating Political Reality"

Stanford Political Science Prof. Andy Hall, a colleague of mine at Hoover, has this very interesting post at his new Free Systems Substack. An excerpt:

I've studied political prediction markets for years, and their early history is full of clever designs and unrealized promise. But what's happening now is fundamentally different. The scale, the liquidity, and the attention these markets are attracting represent a break from efforts of the past.

My broader project is to understand how we preserve liberty in an increasingly algorithmic world. Prediction markets are a fascinating case where individuals, freely pursuing their own incentives and acting on their own information, can generate a public good for the digital era: a clearer shared picture of a highly complex political environment.