The fourth quarter economic outlook for Oregon shows continued resilience. However, the risk of recession is diminishing, with a modest improvement in 2026 forecast by the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA).

The Forecast Helps the State Government Budgeting Process

The quarterly revenue forecasts are open to public scrutiny and form the basis for the bulk of the Oregon state government’s budgeting process.

Economists Carl Riccadonna and Michael Kennedy examined all sources of revenue contributing to the General Fund (personal and corporate income tax), the lottery, and the Corporate Activity Tax.

The Forecast Was Complicated by a Lack of Statistics because of the Federal Government Shutdown

The economists say the fourth-quarter forecast was complicated by a lack of economic statistics

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