WASHINGTON, D.C. — When U.S. President Donald Trump first threatened tariffs on Canadian goods, the forecasts were grim.

GDP was expected to decline three per cent in seven months, job losses in the auto sector would top 100,000, inflation would tick up over 3 per cent and Canada would be mired in a recession.

Analysts expected the worst when Trump threatened to use “economic force” to transform Canada into the “51st state.” But it has not come to pass.

While the trade war has indeed caused unemployment spikes, supply chain disruptions, and a rough second quarter, in terms of growth, Canada has largely been defying the odds in some surprising areas. The question is, can it hold in 2026 and beyond?

“In terms of shock to the Canadian economy, the worst is behind us,” said Andrew DiCapua,

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