The Inevitable Logic of a Japanese Nuclear Weapon

Argument

The Inevitable Logic of a Japanese Nuclear Weapon

Rapid geopolitical change requires an urgent debate in Japan. November 24, 2025, 5:44 AM Comment icon View Comments ( )

A screen fixed to a wall shows a video of a mushroom cloud. A soldier in a formal dress uniform stands beside the screen with his hands clasped behind his back as he leans against the wall.

It is no longer a question of if but when Japan and South Korea will acquire independent nuclear deterrents within the U.S. alliance system. That system would otherwise loosen in East Asia as the United States’ extended deterrence—the so-called nuclear umbrella—erodes due to China’s and North Korea’s acquisition of second strike capabilities targeting the U.S. mainland. To acquire nuclear weapons will be a politi