$30 oil? JPMorgan thinks it's possible in a couple of years

The world is facing a flood of oil that could push global benchmark Brent prices down into the $30s by the end of 2027 if nothing is done to curtail supply, JPMorgan warned in a Monday note to clients. Oil demand has remained surprisingly strong in 2025 despite bearish sentiment, growing by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). Demand is expected to accelerate by 1.2 million bpd in 2027, according to the bank. But supply is forecast to widen at three times the rate of demand growth this year and next, with half of the gains coming from producers outside OPEC+ , JPMorgan analysts said. The oil market could see a 2.8 million bpd surplus in 2026 and before easing to 2.7 million bpd in 2027, the analysts said. Surpluses that size would push Brent down to $42 per barrel in 2027 and then into $30s by t