U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump after Trump signed the sweeping spending and tax legislation, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 4, 2025. REUTERS/Leah Millis

Coming off blowout victories in New York, New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month, Democrats are looking to keep their electoral momentum going with a special election in a deep-red state, according to a new analysis from The Hill, and potentially make President Donald Trump's growing problems in Congress even worse.

Tennessee's 7th congressional district has been vacant since this past summer, when former Rep. Mark Green resigned to accept a job in the private sector. A special election is now underway, with former state Department of General Services Matt Van Epps, a Trump-endorsed Republican, and State Rep. Aftyn Behn, a Democrat, vying to fill the seat. The GOP has handily carried elections in the district over the years, but a heightened media spotlight on the race and a major push from Democrats have seen Van Epps' odds continually erode.

Despite the party's recent success in races elsewhere, the odds are still not quite in the Democrats' favor in Tennessee, but that has not stopped the flow of fundraising dollars to Behn's campaign from groups outside the state. Given that Trump carried the district by 22 points in the 2024 election, The Hill reports that even a 10-point loss for the Democratic candidate would be seen as a major message to the Republican Party at large. This will also be Tennessee's first special election in decades, prompting some Democrats to see it as a golden opportunity, given their past strength in such races.

“This is our first special election in nearly 40 years in Tennessee, so this is really a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us,” Dakota Galban, chair of the Davidson County Democratic Party, said. “They drew these new lines intentionally to rob Democrats of our voice in Congress, so I think that especially motivates Nashville voters."

As Galban noted, the borders of the district have changed since 2018, the last time there was no incumbent in the race to represent it in Congress, with it now including parts of Nashville, an urban area known to vote more for Democrats. Major party surrogates have also been lending their support to Behn's campaign, including former Vice President and 2024 presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

The race is seen as especially important due to the minuscule GOP majority in the House of Representatives, just six seats as of Monday. Any seat gained by Democrats at this stage makes House Speaker Mike Johnson's job of wrangling his party for votes much more difficult, and increases the odds that the majority could flip back to Democrats.