CHELSEA, Mich. — Bird flu and another disease have shrunk the U.S. turkey population to a 40-year low this year. Wholesale turkey prices are expected to be up more than 40% as a result. But shoppers preparing for Thanksgiving may not see higher prices themselves because many grocers are offering discounted or even free turkeys to get customers in the door. Market research company Datasembly expects the 10 holiday meal staples it tacks to cost 4% more overall. Canned cranberry sauce had the biggest price increase after drought impacted production and new tariffs on steel made cans more expensive. Pricing out a Thanksgiving dinner isn’t an exact science, though, and the firm’s tally differed from other estimates.

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