There is no denying that in some deals, declarer must guess what to do because he doesn’t know how the adverse cards are divided. Any clues might be disturbingly sparse, or the defense might be exceptionally sharp.

Fortunately, such deals are rare. On most occasions, declarer can find a way to improve his chances of guessing correctly, or can avoid guessing altogether.

Take this case where South went wrong. He ruffed the second club lead, drew trump and led a diamond to dummy’s queen. East played low, realizing that if he took the ace, his partner’s jack (if he had it) would be subject to a later finesse.

Declarer then led a low spade to his jack. West won with the king and returned a club. South ruffed, cashed the ace of spades and played another diamond, West following low.

South was

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