Federal tax refunds often represent a family's single largest check of the year, and next year's refunds could be even bigger, with the average payment set to increase by about $1,000 per filer, according to a recent analysis from financial services company Piper Sandler.

That could boost the typical refund check to roughly $4,151 per filer, based on IRS data that shows the average tax refund was $3,151 for the 2025 tax filing season. Americans will file their 2025 individual returns in early 2026, with most people receiving their refunds within 21 days of submitting their forms to the tax agency.

The analysis aligns with other forecasts predicting a bumper year for tax refunds , driven by the "one big, beautiful" tax and spending law signed by President Trump in July. The legi

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