By Jon Scheve

Last week, the USDA report showed the soybean carryout slightly smaller, driven by a yield reduction and increased crush demand. Some market participants are saying this may mean better bean prices down the road.

However, we may need to look deeper at export demand before getting too bullish on beans. As this Grain Stats chart shows, export movement has been painfully slow compared to last year and the 5-year average.

The USDA is now estimating export demand at the lowest level in 12 years, and it’s uncertain if that is even attainable.

The market is hoping the late-October trade deal will bring another 12 million metric tons (MMT) of additional demand from China by the end of January. So far, though, China has purchased less than 3 MMT since then, and none in the last fe

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