Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election shouldn't be remotely competitive, with President Donald Trump having won it by more than 22% in 2024.

But Republicans have been throwing money into the contest over the last few weeks, fearing that Trump's unpopularity combined with the fact that it's an off-year could cost the GOP the seat. Democrats are also spending heavily, hoping to boost Aftyn Behn and pull off what in a normal election year would seem like an unimaginable feat.

And an Emerson College poll released Wednesday shows that Republicans have good reason to panic. The survey shows that the race is a dead heat, with Republican Matt Van Epps leading Behn by just 2 points—49% to 47%.

Even worse for Republicans is that Behn is actually leading the race with voters who

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