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NASHVILLE - Early voting ends Wednesday in a critical Tennessee special election to fill a vacant U.S. House seat long held by Republicans but where both parties are competing heavily in the hope of gaining momentum for next year's mid-term elections.
Retired GOP Rep. Mark Green announced his resignation on June 9 and officially stepped down in July. Republican nominee Matt Van Epps and Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn will face off in the general election to fill the congressional seat.
Ahead of Election Day on Dec. 2, a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows how Tennessee voters are leaning.
The poll found Van Epps with 48% support and Behn with 46%. Two percent back one of three third-party candidates, while 5% remain undecided. When undecided voters are asked which way they lean, Van Epps’ support rises to 49% and Behn’s to 47%.
"The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling in a statement.
Here's what else to know.
Poll shows early voters favor Behn, Election Day crowd backs Van Epps
Early voters favor Behn 56% to 42%, stated the poll, while those planning to vote on Election Day lean toward Van Epps 51% to 39%. According to the Tennessee Secretary of State, 74,694 people have participated in early voting through Nov. 25
Behn’s strongest support comes from voters under 40, with 64% backing her, while Van Epps gains more support among older voters, reaching 61% among those over 70.
There is also a clear gender divide, noted Kimball. Men favor Van Epps 51% to 42%, while women favor Behn 50% to 44%.
Both candidates have identical ratings among voters, 47% favorable and 41% unfavorable.
The gender divide extends to candidate favorability. Women are 54% more likely to view Behn positively compared to 41% of men, added Kimball, while men are 52% more likely to view Van Epps positively compared to 42% of women.
The economy is the top issue for 38% of voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%). Among those who rank the economy as their top concern, 48% support Van Epps and 44% support Behn.
Trump’s approval rating slips in Tennessee’s 7th District
President Donald Trump’s approval rating in the district stands at 47%, with 49% disapproving. This marks a sharp drop from last November, noted Kimball, when he won the district by 22 points.
The decline is largely due to independents, 59% of whom disapprove compared to 34% who approve, she continued.
What to know about Democrat candidate Aftyn Behn?
Behn is a longtime political organizer seeking to flip Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district.
Raised by working-class parents in Knoxville, she earned a graduate degree in social work, and then spent nearly a decade organizing across Middle Tennessee, advocating for Medicaid expansion, fighting rural hospital closures, and seeking to lower the cost of living and build a more inclusive democracy.
Behn was elected in 2023 to represent a state House district. Since then, she has sponsored legislation to repeal Tennessee’s 4% grocery tax, change corporate tax rules, restore abortion access, and reform how the legislature handles sexual assault complaints.
Behn's campaign has focused on affordability and basic government functionality. Her campaign slogan is to “feed kids, fix roads and fund hospitals.”
What to know about Republican candidate Matt Van Epps?
As previously reported by the Tennessean, a USA TODAY Network partner, Van Epps grew up in an affluent suburb of Cleveland, Ohio, and moved to Tennessee after a 10-year military career in the U.S. Army.
He has worked in the Veterans Services and Transportation departments and led the Department of General Services. He also helped shape Tennessee’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, strategizing ways to get residents vaccinated.
He first moved to Nashville just over a decade ago.
Van Epps has said he wants to run for Congress to make the country better for the next generation. He supports healthcare reform, improving services for veterans and Trump's political agenda.
"We cannot let the president down in this election," Van Epps said on a tele-rally with Trump on the eve of the primary. "Vote to defend America’s freedom, safety and way of life. We must stand united with President Trump against the radical left who are determined to destroy all we hold dear."
When is the Tennessee special election in 2025?
Election Day is Dec. 2, and early voting runs through Wednesday, Nov. 26.
Poll methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Tennessee 7th District survey, funded by Emerson College and Nexstar Media, was conducted between Nov. 22 - 24. The survey was offered in English.
The sample consisted of 600 likely voters and carried a credibility interval of about 4 points, comparable to a poll’s margin of error. Data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party registration, using voter file information and U.S. Census parameters.
Subsets based on demographics were associated with higher credibility intervals due to reduced sample sizes. Survey results should therefore be interpreted within the poll’s range of scores.
With a 95% confidence interval, results are expected to fall outside that range about once in every 20 instances.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of likely voters via MMS-to-web texts using voter lists provided by Aristotle, and online panel interviews provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code.
All survey questions, including exact wording, along with full results, demographic breakdowns, and cross tabulations, are available under Full Results.
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for the Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X at @_leyvadiana
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Alarm bells for GOP? Tennessee poll shows close special election race
Reporting by Diana Leyva, USA TODAY NETWORK / Nashville Tennessean
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