Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has attributed the rise of the independence movement in her province to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, citing a series of nine "bad laws" that she claims fueled separatist sentiments. She also praised Trudeau's successor, Mark Carney, for implementing policies that address the concerns of Albertans and potentially diminish the push for independence.

Trudeau's visit to Calgary nearly five years ago was marked by significant protests, with thousands demonstrating against him at a hotel where he was speaking. At that time, Canadian crude was discounted by $40 a barrel compared to the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), primarily due to insufficient pipeline capacity. Currently, that discount has decreased to less than $12, largely due to the Trans Mountain expansion, a project that Trudeau facilitated by purchasing the pipeline.

In 2018, the oil industry in Alberta was reportedly losing $80 million daily, a situation Trudeau described as "unacceptable." Despite this, he continued to advocate for stringent regulations, which led to the cancellation of the Northern Gateway pipeline project. He proposed a "grand bargain" with Alberta, aiming to balance economic growth with environmental concerns. In a December 2018 interview, Trudeau reflected on the challenges of his decision to proceed with the Trans Mountain expansion while also pursuing a carbon pricing strategy, calling it one of the toughest choices of his tenure. "Any decisions you make around big things that have a significant impact on people’s lives... are decisions you know that lots of people are going to take issue with and disagree with," he stated.

Fast forward to the present, and the Calgary Herald reports that the oil industry is "thrilled" with a new energy agreement. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by Smith and Carney signals that Alberta's concerns are being acknowledged, although British Columbia has expressed dissatisfaction over being excluded from the discussions.

The MOU could potentially weaken the separatist movement, which typically garners support from about 25% of Alberta's voters. However, the agreement's ability to facilitate the construction of an oil pipeline remains uncertain. The MOU outlines a commitment from both governments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, allowing time for technology to develop without interim targets.

Central to the agreement is the construction of a privately financed oil pipeline, co-owned by Indigenous groups, aimed at reaching the Pacific Coast. This project is contingent upon the simultaneous advancement of the Pathways Alliance carbon capture and storage initiative. The Alberta government plans to submit an application for the pipeline to the federal Major Projects Office by next July.

In return, Alberta has pledged to promote pipeline development, incentivize investments in data centers, create a nuclear generation strategy, and ensure that British Columbia benefits economically from the project. Ottawa has agreed to lift the proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, suspend clean electricity regulations, and establish a streamlined approval process for the pipeline. Additionally, it will utilize Indigenous Loan Guarantees to support Indigenous ownership and may adjust the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act if the pipeline receives approval.

Carney's overarching goal is to retain Alberta within Canada while maximizing job creation, profits, exports, and tax revenues, all while reducing emissions. A key aspect of this strategy involves increasing the province's industrial carbon price from the current $95 per tonne to a level that supports the Pathways investment. The specific price point will be determined by both parties at a later date, as outlined in the agreement.