The path to returning to a balanced budget is “tight,” Finance Minister Eric Girard acknowledged on Friday. If Canada and the United States fail to reach a trade agreement next year, Quebec may have to suspend its balanced budget law.

The minister said this scenario was unlikely during a speech to the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal to present the broad outlines of his budget update.

If U.S. President Donald Trump were to end free trade between the two countries, the consequences for Quebec’s economy and budgetary situation would be significant, he warned.

The government would then have no choice but to support the economy at the expense of its budgetary schedule, he said.

With the fall 2026 election campaign approaching, Girard indicated that the Coalition Avenir Québec (

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