The resignation of Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet (but not the Liberal caucus) on Thursday, after Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to build an oil and bitumen pipeline to the Pacific coast, has made the agreement look like a bigger win for Alberta than it truly is.

I would give the Alberta government about a one-in-four chance — at best — of getting a new pipeline built, even after Thursday’s MOU.

The memorandum does nothing to repeal Carney’s guarantee of a veto over the line to B.C.’s NDP government and to West Coast First Nations. It makes no federal promise to help persuade B.C. or First Nations, either.

Those two obstacles alone are likely to be enough to block the pipeline.

Then the

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