The Lone Star Showdown belongs to Texas and HC Steve Sarkisian’s crew just handed No. 3 Texas A&M its first loss of the season. A humbling 27-17 heartbreak. But the real question humming underneath all that burnt-orange swagger is did Texas just punch a ticket into the 12-team College Football Playoff? It’s a yes and no either, depending on the remaining games.

Texas entered the night sitting at No. 16. Even after the rivalry win, ESPN prediction still gives them just a meagre 11% chance for the playoffs. But here’s the hidden reality. With four teams between the Longhorns and the cutoff, and a resume now featuring a win over an 11-0 giant, the Longhorns are just deeply dependent on chaos.

To understand the path, start with the five current projected auto-bid locks. Ohio State (Big Ten),

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