The Detroit Lions’ playoff chances were nearly cut in half over the course of past two days. The Lions’ Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers—in addition to the Cowboys and Bears winning—has shifted the course of Detroit’s playoff chase, and now they are big underdogs to make the postseason after entering the week with high probabilities to return to the dance.

Using the New York Times playoff simulator, Detroit entered the week with a 73% chance to make the playoffs. After the three worst possible outcomes of the week, the Lions’ chances now sit at just 32%—a 41% drop-off.

Let’s take a look at why, by looking at the latest NFC playoff picture standings.

NFC North playoff picture • Chicago Bears: 9-3 • Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1 • Detroit Lions: 7-5 • Minnesota Vikings: 4-7

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