Look for Ohio State and Indiana to remain atop the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings as the only unbeaten teams in the Bowl Subdivision, while Georgia and Texas Tech climb into the top four.
A spot was opened by a Texas A&M loss to Texas. The Aggies’ first loss will result in at least a two-spot drop and as many as four after they failed to reach the SEC championship game.
But no playoff contender heads into the weekend feeling the pressure more than Alabama. An unimpressive Iron Bowl win against Auburn confirms the possibility the Crimson Tide are left out of the bracket with a loss in the rematch against Georgia for the SEC championship.
That would be stunning, true, but also understandable: Alabama has regressed since a four-game run of wins in September and October against Georgia, Vanderbilt Missouri and Tennessee.
After that impressive run, the Tide needed two touchdowns in two minutes to beat South Carolina, sputtered offensively in a win against LSU, laid an egg in a home loss to Oklahoma and then escaped against Auburn on a fourth-down touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
That Alabama could drop out the bracket is great news for Miami, which has put together a résumé worthy of an at-large berth but has been boxed out since losing to Louisville and SMU.
Here’s how the penultimate rankings will look:
1. Ohio State (12-0)
The Buckeyes can lose on Saturday and still finish in the top four. No other team can say that with certainty, though Indiana would have a very strong argument with a narrow loss in the Big Ten championship game.
2. Indiana (12-0)
The final score against Ohio State might not even matter, actually. That’s because Indiana has a hard floor of No. 4 should Oregon land at No. 5 and ahead of Texas A&M. The Hoosiers beat the Ducks on the road earlier this year and would have every reason to remain ahead in the final rankings.
3. Georgia (11-1)
Georgia won’t earn the top seed but would rise to No. 2 by beating Alabama. While the Crimson Tide are far from a powerhouse, the Bulldogs’ offense has to improve after averaging just 3.9 yards per play in a win against Georgia Tech.
4. Texas Tech (11-1)
The Texas A&M loss locks Tech into the top four with a win in its rematch against Brigham Young. The one-spot climb also guarantees the Red Raiders would earn an at-large berth with a loss.
5. Oregon (11-1)
The Ducks answered the bell in November with wins against Iowa, Southern California and Washington. That might be enough to give them the No. 5 seed next weekend, which would result in a matchup against the winner of the American, ACC champion Duke or James Madison.
6. Texas A&M (11-1)
While the drop continued to No. 7 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, A&M has the overall résumé to stay ahead of Mississippi. That’s especially true when you consider the possibility the committee docks the Rebels for Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU.
7. Mississippi (11-1)
With one fewer loss and a head-to-head win, Ole Miss has to remain in front of Oklahoma regardless of how the committee views Kiffin’s absence. That means new coach Pete Golding’s debut will come with the Rebels as one of the host teams in the opening round.
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
Oklahoma gutted out a 17-13 win against LSU and will draw an at-large bid after being basically left for dead in early November. Whether the Sooners will be a one-and-done playoff team depends on how much growth the offense can make in the next few weeks.
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
That Notre Dame capped the year playing as well as any team in the country and removed any doubt the Irish will stay ahead of Miami despite the head-to-head loss.
10. Alabama (10-2)
The defense has answered the call, at least. Alabama held LSU to just 232 yards, limited Oklahoma to only 4.2 yards per play and was pretty good in the Iron bowl minus two lapses in the second half that sparked Auburn touchdowns. But a more complete performance will be needed to take down Georgia for a second time. And a bad loss would leave some doubt.
11. Brigham Young (11-1)
The current bracket says BYU has to beat Texas Tech to make the playoff. That seems unlikely given the Red Raiders’ dominant 29-7 win in early November. Still, the Cougars are capable of scoring the upset, which would be the dream scenario for the Big 12. In that case, the league would send BYU as an automatic bid and Tech as an at-large pick.
12. Miami (10-2)
The Hurricanes are unlikely to earn an at-large berth unless Alabama loses. Every other team in the current bracket set to play this weekend — Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia and Texas Tech — is assured a playoff spot win or lose. Leaving Miami out despite the win against Notre Dame will go down as one of the most controversial selection decisions in playoff history.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings release prediction for playoff field projection after Week 14
Reporting by Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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